How predictable is start-up success?

In 2007, over 700 Internet companies applied to TechCrunch and only 40 were chosen to present. Winning gave them press exposure, user feedback and interest of the venture community. Web’s most exciting and promising startups were rated by the audience (see the results of this vote). We know that venture capitalists are not always right. Same applies to professional external assessors.   What about the wisdom of the crowds?  How did the votes compare to the actual outcome 3 years later?

Not so good. The audience award winner Metaplace is out of business, while the actual winners – Mint and Powerset got 1% and 0% of votes, respectively. See for yourself.

Advertisement